Thursday, 15 January 2015

A Starter's Guide to Better Stock Picking


Earnings Per Share

A common indicator and approach to stock market investing is the looking at the profits earned by the company. We generally tend to compare it over a period of time that includes year on year, quarter on quarter etc. But is it right? Is it correct? Are we on the right track? Well, the answer is yes and no. No doubt the profits earned by the company are a way to gauge its performance over a period of time but it never gives a complete picture. While analyzing and comparing the profits of company, we should also take note of the industry performance and performance of the peers /competitors in the strategic group. For the purpose of simplicity, strategic group are companies having similar nature of businesses. Take for example, Tata Motors per se can be compared with Maruti Suzuki, but the Performance of its Jaguar Land Rover division would need to be excluded.
Now that is just the beginning. The true indicator of performance and shareholder value creation is the Earnings per share (EPS). It is per se a representative of the value generated by the company’s operations to its common stockholders. The company may be incurring profits, but the capital structure may not allow the company to pass on the earnings to its shareholders. For the purpose of simplicity, the capital structure represents the different sources of funds the company has used to fund its operations / assets.  In its crude form, capital structure identifies the debt and equity structure of the company. Some companies can have complex capital structure that would involve hybrid securities, e-sops, preference shares etc.
Apart from Earnings per share, the Next things that come to the picture are different financial ratios like debt-equity, asset turnover ratio, profitability ratios etc. A quick comparison with industry/peers and over a period of time shall give a clear picture on whether to invest in a company or otherwise continue staying or not.
However, at this point it is important first to understand the underlying principles of EPS
EPS, in simple form is referred as the ratio of earnings (profit after tax) generated by the company to the no. of shares of a company in the market.

A common mistake in calculating the earnings per share is that we generally tend to divide the earnings with the existing no. of shareholders on a given date. This is however, not correct. Changes in the equity structure of the company over a period of time need to be discounted with. It is done by calculating the weighted average no. of shares.  Further, companies with complex capital structure need to declare diluted earnings per share. In case, an investor sees both Basic Earnings per share and diluted earnings per share, it is imperative that he/she uses the diluted earnings per share as a metric to analyze and compare the performance.

The above guidelines, however do not take cognizance of the accounting adjustments that companies do to show better ratios and higher EPS. In accounting terminology, the same is known as Earnings management and is legal as per law. This will be when the financial statements are stated and books of accounts are adjusted for various accounting policies within the frameworks prescribed as per Standards. This is legal and is unlike the case in Satyam, wherein the accounts were manipulated and fake assets were shown. These accounting policies are always declared in the notes to accounts and are sometimes discussed in the management discussion section of the financial reports.
To summarize, in order to gauge a company’s performance and deciding whether to invest or not is dependent on many factors. It includes understanding and comparing various financial ratios and comparing the same with its peers. The most important indicator however is Earnings per share which is value created for shareholders. EPS calculation is complex and requires and understanding of Companies capital structure and discounting for its accounting policies.
The next sections shall cover more on Earnings per share followed by the cost of capital of the company and the relation to Earnings per share.












        Guest Author
        Utkarsh Khanna, MBA (Finance) , 
        Indian Institute of Management Lucknow.
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